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Liquidia Corp (LQDA)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 total revenue was $8.84M, a significant beat versus Wall Street consensus of $3.89M, driven by initial YUTREPIA channel stocking and early patient starts; however, EPS of -$0.49 missed consensus of -$0.43 as SG&A and interest expense stepped up with commercialization and HCR financing . Revenue Consensus Mean: $3.89M*, EPS Consensus Mean: -$0.431* (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
  • Commercial launch momentum: >900 unique prescriptions and >550 patient starts within 11 weeks of approval; ~75% script-to-start conversion in the first six weeks; prescriber breadth >350 physicians; payer access improving with contracts signed with “all major commercial payers” and removal of new-to-market blocks expected to accelerate conversions in 2H25 .
  • ASCENT interim PH-ILD data reinforced tolerability and efficacy (median 6MWD +31.5m at Week 16), enabling dose escalation with stable cough scores; detailed data slated for September/October conferences, adding potential clinical validation catalysts .
  • Operational posture: SG&A (ex non-cash/variable costs tied to sales) expected to remain flat next few quarters; R&D to increase with label studies and L606 pivotal prep; 70k sq ft manufacturing lease signed to triple capacity, targeted 2026 occupancy; $50M HCR tranche received to support launch scale-up .
  • Stock-relevant catalysts: accelerating payer coverage, incremental switches from Tyvaso/Tyvaso DPI, upcoming ASCENT readouts, and pending litigation decision timing; near-term narrative likely driven by demonstrated adoption durability beyond initial channel load .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Rapid demand and strong early adoption: “over 900 unique patient prescriptions leading to more than 550 patient starts” in 11 weeks post-approval; CEO emphasized “exceeded my own high expectations” and differentiated tolerability/escation profile versus incumbents .
  • PH-ILD clinical momentum: ASCENT interim analyses showed median 6MWD +21.5m (Week 8) and +31.5m (Week 16) with dose titration to median 159 mcg QID and stable mean daytime cough scores, supporting real-world tolerability and efficacy .
  • Payer access improving and commercial infrastructure scaling: signed contracts with major commercial payers; market access programs (free voucher 28 days; bridge program) helping rapid start; lease for additional manufacturing capacity to support growth .

What Went Wrong

  • EPS miss despite revenue beat: Q2 2025 EPS of -$0.49 missed consensus as SG&A nearly doubled YoY to $38.8M and interest expense rose with HCR borrowings; net loss widened to -$41.6M .
  • Heavy initial channel loading: CFO indicated “vast, vast majority” of revenue in the first launch quarter was channel stocking, increasing the need to show sustainable patient demand stacking in Q3+ .
  • Legal overhang: United Therapeutics ongoing actions and patent litigation continue to pose injunctive risk to commercialization and to label stability; management avoided probablizing outcomes, noting accelerated briefing but uncertain timing .

Financial Results

Summary P&L (USD)

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Revenue ($USD)$3.659M $3.120M $8.837M
Loss from Operations ($USD)$(27.197)M $(35.425)M $(37.505)M
Net Loss ($USD)$(28.668)M $(38.367)M $(41.579)M
EPS (Basic & Diluted) ($USD)$(0.38) $(0.45) $(0.49)
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD)N/A$169.758M $173.422M

Revenue Breakdown (USD)

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Product Sales, net ($USD)$0 (no product revenue recognized) N/A (revenue primarily service) $6.517M
Service Revenue, net ($USD)$3.659M $3.120M $2.320M

Costs and Operating Expenses (USD)

MetricQ2 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Cost of Product Sales ($USD)$0 N/A$0.205M
Cost of Service Revenue ($USD)$1.493M $1.517M $1.292M
Research & Development ($USD)$9.420M $6.966M $6.021M
Selling, General & Administrative ($USD)$19.943M $30.062M $38.824M
Total Costs & Expenses ($USD)$30.856M $38.545M $46.342M

Actual vs Consensus (S&P Global) – Key Metrics

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue Actual ($USD)$2.917M $3.120M $8.837M
Revenue Consensus Mean ($USD)$4.598M*$3.225M*$3.894M*
EPS Actual ($USD)$(0.45) $(0.45) $(0.49)
EPS Consensus Mean ($USD)$(0.38)*$(0.40)*$(0.431)*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
SG&A (ex non-cash/variable costs tied to sales)Next few quartersN/A“Should remain flat over the next few quarters” Maintained (qualitative)
R&D Expenses2H 2025N/A“Anticipate increases in quarterly R&D” for ongoing label studies and L606 pivotal prep Raised (qualitative)
Payer Access2H 2025New-to-market blocks; contracted competitor accessContracts signed with major commercial payers; expect NDC/new-to-market blocks removed “shortly”; parity access targeted Raised (qualitative access)
Manufacturing Capacity2026N/A70k sq ft lease signed; targeted occupancy in 2026; potentially tripling production capacity Raised (capacity outlook)
Financing AvailabilityThrough 2026 milestoneUp to $200M HCR; pending tranches+$50M received; $175M total funded; $25M remains contingent on $100M net sales milestone by 6/30/26 Improved liquidity

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024)Previous Mentions (Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Regulatory/LaunchTargeting final YUTREPIA approval post 5/23/25 exclusivity expiry PDUFA set for 5/24/25; launch readiness FDA approval 5/23; launch initiated early June; strong uptake Positive execution
Product PerformanceINSPIRE/ASCENT supportive tolerability/titration ASCENT Cohort A fully enrolled; positive trends ASCENT interim: median 6MWD +31.5m; stable cough; higher dosing Strengthening efficacy/tolerability
Payer/AccessN/AN/AContracts with major commercial payers; expect block removal shortly Improving access
Commercial KPIsN/AN/A>900 scripts; >550 starts; 75% conversion first 6 weeks; >350 prescribers Rapid adoption
ManufacturingN/AN/A70k sq ft lease; capacity expansion to triple; 2026 occupancy Capacity build
FinancingAmended HCRx up to +$100M Sixth amendment up to +$100M +$50M received; $175M funded; $25M remains contingent Strengthened liquidity
Legal/LitigationOngoing UTHR-related matters Court dismissed UTHR cross-claim re PH-ILD label amendment Pending patent litigation decision timing; injunction risk acknowledged Persistent overhang

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Since May, specialty pharmacies have reported over 900 unique patient prescriptions leading more to more than 550 patient starts… this has truly outpaced all expectations” .
  • CEO on ASCENT: “Mean daytime simplified cough scores remained essentially unchanged… median improvements in six minute walk distance of 21.5m at week eight… 31.5m at week sixteen” .
  • CFO: “We closed the quarter with over $173,000,000 in cash… $8,800,000 in revenue of which $6,500,000 came from Eutrebia product sales… R&D to increase; SG&A (ex non-cash/variable costs) should remain flat” .
  • CCO: “We have 6,500 targets across the country… breadth and depth to capitalize… prescribers have one-to-five-plus patients, with opportunity for more” .
  • CEO on accelerants: expanding breadth/depth, payer coverage, leveraging switch opportunity, dosing flexibility for durability, oral transitions initiative .

Q&A Highlights

  • Mix and adoption durability: Less than 50% of starts used free voucher drug; conversion rate ~75% first six weeks; early momentum despite initial payer blocks .
  • Revenue composition: “Vast, vast majority” of Q2 revenue was initial channel loading; expectation for patient stacking and second scripts into Q3 .
  • Payer coverage: Contracts signed with major commercial payers; block removal “shortly”; aim for parity access with incumbents .
  • Switch dynamics: Notable switches from Tyvaso/Tyvaso DPI and some oral prostacyclins; many Tyvaso DPI patients “parked at low dose” seeking tolerability/dose escalation .
  • Legal timeline: Post-trial briefing complete; decision timing uncertain but potentially faster than prior case; injunction/relief outcomes remain possible .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025: Revenue $8.84M vs consensus $3.89M* → bold beat; EPS -$0.49 vs -$0.431* → miss. The beat was driven by channel load and early starts; miss reflects higher SG&A (commercialization, litigation) and interest expense from HCR financing .
  • Q1 2025: Revenue $3.12M vs $3.23M* (in-line); EPS -$0.45 vs -$0.40* (slight miss) .
  • Q4 2024: Revenue $2.92M vs $4.60M* (miss) and EPS -$0.45 vs -$0.38* (miss) .
    Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Where estimates may adjust:

  • Revenue trajectories likely revised higher for 2H25 on accelerating access and demonstrated adoption; EPS estimates may reflect higher-than-previous SG&A run-rate and interest expense as commercialization scales .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • YUTREPIA launch is off to a robust start with strong early KPIs; the next test is demonstrating durable demand beyond channel load and achieving higher script-to-start conversions as payer blocks fall .
  • Bold revenue beat versus consensus underscores initial market receptivity; expect sell-side to lift revenue estimates while reassessing EPS/SG&A trajectory given litigation and commercialization costs .
  • Payer contracts and block removal are near-term catalysts that could accelerate new patient starts and switching dynamics, including Tyvaso DPI patients at low doses .
  • ASCENT interim data strengthens the PH-ILD case; upcoming readouts in September/October could further validate tolerability and efficacy, supporting prescriber confidence and share gain .
  • Manufacturing capacity expansion (70k sq ft; 2026 occupancy) and HCR funding bolster scale-up readiness; liquidity at $173.4M cash supports commercialization runway .
  • Litigation remains the principal overhang; monitor court timelines and outcomes given injunction risk could impact label or commercialization pace .
  • Trading implications: near term skew positive on payer access announcements and ASCENT data; watch for Q3 evidence of patient stacking and second scripts to confirm sustainability post-channel load .