LC
Liquidia Corp (LQDA)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 total revenue was $8.84M, a significant beat versus Wall Street consensus of $3.89M, driven by initial YUTREPIA channel stocking and early patient starts; however, EPS of -$0.49 missed consensus of -$0.43 as SG&A and interest expense stepped up with commercialization and HCR financing . Revenue Consensus Mean: $3.89M*, EPS Consensus Mean: -$0.431* (Values retrieved from S&P Global).
- Commercial launch momentum: >900 unique prescriptions and >550 patient starts within 11 weeks of approval; ~75% script-to-start conversion in the first six weeks; prescriber breadth >350 physicians; payer access improving with contracts signed with “all major commercial payers” and removal of new-to-market blocks expected to accelerate conversions in 2H25 .
- ASCENT interim PH-ILD data reinforced tolerability and efficacy (median 6MWD +31.5m at Week 16), enabling dose escalation with stable cough scores; detailed data slated for September/October conferences, adding potential clinical validation catalysts .
- Operational posture: SG&A (ex non-cash/variable costs tied to sales) expected to remain flat next few quarters; R&D to increase with label studies and L606 pivotal prep; 70k sq ft manufacturing lease signed to triple capacity, targeted 2026 occupancy; $50M HCR tranche received to support launch scale-up .
- Stock-relevant catalysts: accelerating payer coverage, incremental switches from Tyvaso/Tyvaso DPI, upcoming ASCENT readouts, and pending litigation decision timing; near-term narrative likely driven by demonstrated adoption durability beyond initial channel load .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Rapid demand and strong early adoption: “over 900 unique patient prescriptions leading to more than 550 patient starts” in 11 weeks post-approval; CEO emphasized “exceeded my own high expectations” and differentiated tolerability/escation profile versus incumbents .
- PH-ILD clinical momentum: ASCENT interim analyses showed median 6MWD +21.5m (Week 8) and +31.5m (Week 16) with dose titration to median 159 mcg QID and stable mean daytime cough scores, supporting real-world tolerability and efficacy .
- Payer access improving and commercial infrastructure scaling: signed contracts with major commercial payers; market access programs (free voucher 28 days; bridge program) helping rapid start; lease for additional manufacturing capacity to support growth .
What Went Wrong
- EPS miss despite revenue beat: Q2 2025 EPS of -$0.49 missed consensus as SG&A nearly doubled YoY to $38.8M and interest expense rose with HCR borrowings; net loss widened to -$41.6M .
- Heavy initial channel loading: CFO indicated “vast, vast majority” of revenue in the first launch quarter was channel stocking, increasing the need to show sustainable patient demand stacking in Q3+ .
- Legal overhang: United Therapeutics ongoing actions and patent litigation continue to pose injunctive risk to commercialization and to label stability; management avoided probablizing outcomes, noting accelerated briefing but uncertain timing .
Financial Results
Summary P&L (USD)
Revenue Breakdown (USD)
Costs and Operating Expenses (USD)
Actual vs Consensus (S&P Global) – Key Metrics
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “Since May, specialty pharmacies have reported over 900 unique patient prescriptions leading more to more than 550 patient starts… this has truly outpaced all expectations” .
- CEO on ASCENT: “Mean daytime simplified cough scores remained essentially unchanged… median improvements in six minute walk distance of 21.5m at week eight… 31.5m at week sixteen” .
- CFO: “We closed the quarter with over $173,000,000 in cash… $8,800,000 in revenue of which $6,500,000 came from Eutrebia product sales… R&D to increase; SG&A (ex non-cash/variable costs) should remain flat” .
- CCO: “We have 6,500 targets across the country… breadth and depth to capitalize… prescribers have one-to-five-plus patients, with opportunity for more” .
- CEO on accelerants: expanding breadth/depth, payer coverage, leveraging switch opportunity, dosing flexibility for durability, oral transitions initiative .
Q&A Highlights
- Mix and adoption durability: Less than 50% of starts used free voucher drug; conversion rate ~75% first six weeks; early momentum despite initial payer blocks .
- Revenue composition: “Vast, vast majority” of Q2 revenue was initial channel loading; expectation for patient stacking and second scripts into Q3 .
- Payer coverage: Contracts signed with major commercial payers; block removal “shortly”; aim for parity access with incumbents .
- Switch dynamics: Notable switches from Tyvaso/Tyvaso DPI and some oral prostacyclins; many Tyvaso DPI patients “parked at low dose” seeking tolerability/dose escalation .
- Legal timeline: Post-trial briefing complete; decision timing uncertain but potentially faster than prior case; injunction/relief outcomes remain possible .
Estimates Context
- Q2 2025: Revenue $8.84M vs consensus $3.89M* → bold beat; EPS -$0.49 vs -$0.431* → miss. The beat was driven by channel load and early starts; miss reflects higher SG&A (commercialization, litigation) and interest expense from HCR financing .
- Q1 2025: Revenue $3.12M vs $3.23M* (in-line); EPS -$0.45 vs -$0.40* (slight miss) .
- Q4 2024: Revenue $2.92M vs $4.60M* (miss) and EPS -$0.45 vs -$0.38* (miss) .
Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.
Where estimates may adjust:
- Revenue trajectories likely revised higher for 2H25 on accelerating access and demonstrated adoption; EPS estimates may reflect higher-than-previous SG&A run-rate and interest expense as commercialization scales .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- YUTREPIA launch is off to a robust start with strong early KPIs; the next test is demonstrating durable demand beyond channel load and achieving higher script-to-start conversions as payer blocks fall .
- Bold revenue beat versus consensus underscores initial market receptivity; expect sell-side to lift revenue estimates while reassessing EPS/SG&A trajectory given litigation and commercialization costs .
- Payer contracts and block removal are near-term catalysts that could accelerate new patient starts and switching dynamics, including Tyvaso DPI patients at low doses .
- ASCENT interim data strengthens the PH-ILD case; upcoming readouts in September/October could further validate tolerability and efficacy, supporting prescriber confidence and share gain .
- Manufacturing capacity expansion (70k sq ft; 2026 occupancy) and HCR funding bolster scale-up readiness; liquidity at $173.4M cash supports commercialization runway .
- Litigation remains the principal overhang; monitor court timelines and outcomes given injunction risk could impact label or commercialization pace .
- Trading implications: near term skew positive on payer access announcements and ASCENT data; watch for Q3 evidence of patient stacking and second scripts to confirm sustainability post-channel load .